Geopolitical and political risk
Understand how political decisions, contested elections and shifting alliances will affect your investments, operations and people.
Political risk is rarely a single event. It is a chain of decisions, incentives and constraints. We map that chain so you can see where it leads.
Our analysts assess the stability, policy direction and institutional strength of the countries where you invest and operate. We identify who holds power, what they want, what constrains them, and how their choices will translate into regulation, contracts, taxation and security.
Each assessment ends with a probability-rated judgement, the implications for your exposure, and the indicators that would change our view.
Services
- Country risk assessmentsStructured assessments of political stability, policy trajectory, regulatory risk and security, tailored to your sector and assets.
- Election and transition analysisOutcome probabilities, coalition dynamics and the policy consequences of each plausible result.
- Sanctions and trade policyAnalysis of sanctions regimes, export controls, tariffs and investment screening, and how they are likely to evolve.
- Security risk assessmentEvaluation of conflict, unrest, crime and terrorism risks to personnel, facilities and supply routes.
- Stakeholder and power mappingWho decides, who influences, and where the leverage lies in a political or regulatory process.
Typical client questions
A selection of the questions clients bring to this practice.
- What is the probability that a new government will revisit the terms of our concession?
- How exposed is our supply chain to escalating trade restrictions between major economies?
- Is the current wave of unrest likely to affect our operations in the next six months?
- Which sanctions scenarios should we prepare for, and what would each mean for our contracts?
- Who are the decision makers on this regulatory file, and what drives their position?
Often combined with
Scenarios and strategic advisory
Scenario planning, tabletop exercises and senior advisory that help leadership teams prepare for uncertain futures.
Learn more RelatedMonitoring and intelligence briefings
Continuous monitoring, tailored watchlists and scheduled briefings that keep you ahead of developments that affect your exposure.
Learn moreDiscuss your requirements.
Tell us about the decision you face and we will propose a scope, timeline and team.
Contact our team